The latest World Economic Outlook indicates that economies are facing high levels of uncertainty with a considerable downside risk. Our economic forecasts project a decline in growth from 3.4 percent last year to 2.8 percent this year, followed by a modest acceleration to 3 percent next year.
The risk factors affecting the outlook are significantly skewed towards the downside, with a higher likelihood of a hard landing. In an alternative scenario where there is more financial sector stress, global growth is projected to decelerate to approximately 2.5 percent in 2023.
Looking further ahead, the baseline forecast predicts growth to hover around 3 percent for the next five years, which is the lowest medium-term growth projection since 1990 and significantly below the average of 3.8 percent over the past two decades.
The subdued outlook reflects the stringent policy measures needed to combat inflation, the repercussions of the recent financial turbulence, Russia’s military conflict in Ukraine, and the growing fragmentation of geoeconomic relationships.
To explore our latest assessment of gross domestic product forecasts, use the Chart of the Week, which presents all available data by adding any economy or grouping from the dataset and sliding the timeline for historical or future estimates.
（Source: IMF)
