UNITED NATIONS, July 15 (WSH) — Global consumption of meat, dairy, and fish is expected to continue rising over the next decade, driven by growing incomes and rapid urbanization in middle-income countries. But stark nutritional disparities and mounting environmental costs could undermine that progress, warns a new UN-OECD report.
The Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034, jointly released by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), forecasts a 6% increase in global per capita consumption of animal-sourced foods by 2034. The jump is most significant in lower middle-income countries, where consumption could rise by 24%, compared to the global average.
“These projections point to better nutrition for many in developing nations,” said Qu Dongyu, FAO Director-General. “But we must ensure no one is left behind.”
Rising Incomes, Uneven Benefits
Improved diets in middle-income countries are being fueled by economic growth and changing dietary habits. Daily intake of animal-sourced foods in these countries could hit 364 kilocalories per person, well above the 300 kcal benchmark.
In contrast, low-income countries remain far behind, with projected daily intake at just 143 kcal, less than half the recommended level for a healthy diet. This stark gap underscores the ongoing struggle to ensure universal access to nutritious food.
Production Growth Comes with Climate Risks
To meet growing demand, global agricultural and fish output is set to increase 14% over the next decade, driven largely by productivity gains. Meat, dairy, and egg production will expand by 17%, while livestock inventories are expected to grow by 7%.
But the gains come at a cost: direct greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are projected to rise by 6%, despite improvements in efficiency. While emissions per unit of output will decrease, overall emissions will still rise unless additional measures are taken.
Key Findings from the Outlook
- Cereal yields expected to grow 0.9% annually; planted areas will expand just 0.14% per year – half the pace of the previous decade
- By 2034, 40% of cereals will be used for direct human consumption, 33% for animal feed, and the rest for biofuels and industry
- Biofuel demand is expected to rise 0.9% annually, led by Brazil, India, and Indonesia
- Sub-Saharan Africa’s beef herd is projected to grow by 15%, though productivity will remain far below that of North America
- India and Southeast Asia will drive 39% of global consumption growth by 2034; China’s share will drop to 13% from 32%
- High-income countries will see declining consumption of fats and sweeteners due to health concerns and new policies
A Path to Better Nutrition and Lower Emissions
The report outlines an optimistic scenario where global nutrition improves while agricultural emissions fall by up to 7% below current levels by 2034. Achieving this would require major investments in technology and widespread adoption of low-emission practices—such as precision agriculture, better livestock feed, and prioritizing nutrient-rich food production.
“We have the tools to end hunger and secure food for all,” said Mathias Cormann, OECD Secretary-General. “But success depends on coordinated policies that improve productivity while ensuring sustainability.”
Global Trade Still Essential
With 22% of all calories expected to cross borders by 2034, international trade will remain critical. The report emphasizes the need for multilateral cooperation and a rules-based agricultural trade system to balance global food supply and demand, stabilize prices, and ensure food security.
